Up to date as of: July 31, 2008

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The Best of the Oil Drum Index

 

Africa

Algeria and Morocco: Natural Gas Cartels, Fertilizer Mercantilism, and Rising Tensions, July 14, 2008 Because both Algeria and Morocco are fragile Nation-States, with active Islamist separatist movements, significant internal terrorist threats, and complicated ethnic/territorial problems, the potential for interruption in critical exports of phosphate, oil, and gas is increasing.
Nigeria – The Significance of the Bonga Offshore Oil Platform Attack, June 24, 2008 This assumption--that far offshore facilities are beyond the reach of militants--must now be reconsidered.
Understanding the current energy crisis in South Africa, Feb 1, 2008 South Africa has been experiencing blackouts over the last three weeks or so, and is forecast to have electricty shortages until at least 2013...Here Simon and Jeremy discuss the issues in more detail. top

Agriculture/Food

Food Sovereignty and the Collapse of Nations, July 25, 2008 A swift move towards self sufficiency, along with a return to local interdependency, could go a long way towards mitigating our problems and stabilizing our democratic goals and aims.
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Australia

Waiting For Garnaut, No More, July 4, 2008 The long awaited Garnaut report (pdf) is out at last, prompting an explosion of media analysis.
Australia: What to do, what to do about our energy situation?, May 15, 2008 If we are going to call on politicians and business leaders to act, we need to define what actions are required. It is not enough to scare people - we need to provide a call to arms, not a call to panic. Budget Update, May 14, 2008 The petroleum industry says the scrapping of a tax exemption on crude oil derived from gas will create uncertainty for Australia's largest resource project. The Impact Of Rising Oil Prices On Sydney Suburbs, May 12, 2008 Today's SMH has a prominent article on the impact of rising petrol prices on Sydney suburbs featuring a study by Peter Rickwood of UTS (one of Garry Glazebrook's students by the look of it). ASPO Australia's David Bell gets a mention too. Ethanol Mandates For Queensland?, May 9, 2008 Queensland opposition leader Lawrence Springborg seems oblivious to the recent backlash against biofuels (or doesn't care - it is not clear which) and is pushing for a mandatory 10% ethanol content in fuel sold in Queensland by 2011. The Queensland government isn't much better, proposing a 5% target instead. Solving Our Water Problems - Desalination Using Solar Thermal Power, May 2, 2008 In this post I'll look at the Acquasol project and then more generally at water scarcity worldwide and some of the approaches being taken to tackle it. Policies to Develop a Low Emissions Transport Sector in Australia, April 17, 2008 Professor Garnaut, Thank you for the opportunity to provide this submission. In the following pages I set out to show that you have not included in your thinking to date the most disruptive factor affecting transport emissions. Given that oil is the lifeblood of our transport system I provide evidence that escalating oil costs and supply constraints are real and critical within short planning horizons. Coal To Liquids In Australia, April 13, 2008 Energy Minister Martin Ferguson has been talking about gas to liquids (a subject covered here previously) as part of a strategy to address Australia's dependence on imported fuels. The minister has also previously expressed enthusiasm about coal to liquids projects (declaring at a recent CTL and GTL Conference "I regard this industry as the key to securing Australia's energy future"), so in this post I'll have a look at a few CTL projects currently at various stages of development around the country. National Liquid Fuels Vulnerability Assessment, April 10, 2008 There's good news and bad news contained in Martin Ferguson's keynote address at the "Energy State of the Nation 2008" conference held in Sydney on 18th March, organised by the Australia Energy Alliance. Hansen to Australian PM: stop coal plants now, March 31, 2008 James Hansen has written an (apparently) open letter to Kevin Rudd, urging that all new coal fired power plants be halted. Rachel Nolan - Peak Oil Speech in Qld Parliament, March 29, 2008 Speech to Parliament, Ms Rachel Nolan MP - Member for Ipswich, 13th March 2008 Australia and the Export Land Model, Feb 22, 2008 I normally try to be a “Good News” kind of guy, but today I bring bad tidings. Despite my previous claims that Australia is The Place To Be, we are in for some tough times here. top

Biomass/Biofuels

Gasoline Blending 101: The Ethanol Blending Requirement, July 28, 2008 The ethanol mandate is based on a fixed number. This means that even as gasoline demand softens, demand for ethanol will not - unless the mandate is rolled back.
Biofuels and the Rise of Nationalistic Environmentalism, May 16, 2008 Biofuels are a form of nationalistic environmentalism that is creating a foundation on which more extreme nationalists will try to wed the racist tools of yesterday with a version of "sustainability" that will include the destruction of the global poor. A Visit to the New Choren BTL Plant, May 6, 2008 I had written several articles on biomass gasification in 2006, and when I announced that I would be moving to Scotland in early 2007, I received an e-mail from Dr. David Henson at Choren. David, at that time in Business Development at Choren and now the President of Choren USA, said he had been reading some of my essays, and he extended an invitation to visit the biomass-to-liquids (BTL) plant that Choren was building in Freiberg, Germany. Jatropha Footnote, April 20, 2008 Following my recent post on the energy situation in India, I received an e-mail from Sreenivas Ghatty, the founder and CEO of Tree Oils India. Sreenivas told me that I was correct that the jatropha situation in India has been overstated, and wanted to provide some facts on where jatropha stands. Sreenivas is involved in trying to establish a jatropha industry. Termite Power, Mar 2, 2008 It occurred to me that probably the most efficient digester of cellulose in the world is the termite. After all, even cattle can't break down wood. Ethanol from Coal, Feb 11, 2008 On the subject of using coal as the source of BTUs for ethanol production, there are two things that stand out. First, the current process of using natural gas to produce ethanol makes little sense, since you can use natural gas directly in a CNG vehicle....Second, the cost of energy per BTU is far lower for coal. Death Rates and Food Prices, Jan 14, 2008 ...many people in poor countries are subsistence farmers, and some poor economies are not really connected to the global commodity markets. So this raises the question - how do death rates in poor countries really respond to global commodity markets? One way to explore this is to look at the global food crisis of the early 1970s. Fermenting the Food Supply, Jan 7, 2008 [I] demonstrate that there are reasonably plausible scenarios for biofuel production growth to cause mass starvation of the global poor, and that this could happen fairly quickly — quite possibly within five years, and certainly well within the life of the existing policy regimes. The Implications of Biofuel Production for United States Water Supplies, Nov 29, 2007 Biofuel progress, a report from Dubuque, Oct 17, 2007 A Life Cycle Assessment of Energy Products: Environmental Impact Assessment of Biofuels, Sep 23, 2007 Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight -An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood, Jul 11, 2007 The Mythical Ethanol Threat, May 29, 2007 How a market for sustainable bio-energy is being developed, May 8, 2007 From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane, Mar 23, 2007 Addicted to Oil and Drunk on Ethanol, Mar 11, 2007 US News and World Report looks at Ethanol, Feb 6, 2007 Key Questions on Energy Options, Jan 24, 2007 Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification, Oct 26, 2006 Report: Brazilian Ethanol is Sustainable, Oct 11, 2006 Whither Cellulosic Ethanol?, Aug 16, 2006 Climate Change and Electricity From Biomass, Aug 1, 2006 A Conversation with Vinod Khosla, Jul 31, 2006 Vinod Khosla Debunked: Ethanol is NOT the Answer, Jul 25, 2007 E3 Biofuels: Responsible Ethanol, Jun 26, 2006 Lessons from Brazil, May 31, 2006 More on biofuels, May 26, 2006 The more things change, the more they stay the same, Apr 28, 2006 Life in a Grass House, Mar 6, 2006 top

Book Reviews

Book Review: Profit from the Peak, June 11, 2008 The idea of profiting from the peak - an event that is likely to cause misery for those who are least prepared - may seem an odd combination. It almost feels like "Profit from Homelessness." But the reality is that unless you understand how energy prices affect the prospects of various sectors, you are placing yourself at a financial disadvantage.
Chris Nelder's Profit from the Peak, June 1, 2008 "Profit from the Peak shows not only why investment in alternative energy sources is about to skyrocket, but more importantly, where investment is going to pay off the most, by concisely describing the huge variety of upcoming energy sources and their relevant companies."
Dmitry Orlov's Book--Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects, May 29, 2008 The ingredients I like to put in my superpower collapse soup are: a severe and chronic shortage in the production of crude oil (the magic elixir of industrial economies), a severe and worsening trade deficit, a runaway military budget and ballooning foreign debt. The heat and agitation can be provided most efficaciously by a humiliating military defeat and widespread fear of a looming catastrophe. Book Review: World Made by Hand, May 1, 2008 When I read James Howard Kunstler's (JHK) book The Long Emergency, it had a profound impact on me. I had been aware for many years that "running out of oil" was a serious matter. After all, I took on the challenge of peak oil in my graduate thesis in 1995. But my focus was more on finding a source that could replace oil as it ran out. Reading The Long Emergency was the first time it really hit me that I was missing a lot of key pieces of the picture. Book Review: Gusher of Lies, Mar 5, 2008 [Robert Bryce's] newest book, Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence, is a must-read for anyone interested in energy issues. Concerning the topic of energy and the many myths associated with energy issues, this is a debunker’s bible. top

Brazil

Clarification on Carioca (reported discovery in Santos Basin), April 15, 2008 Reuters reported yesterday: Haroldo Lima told reporters the find, known as Carioca, could contain 33 billion barrels of oil equivalent, five times the recent giant Tupi discovery. That would further boost Brazil's prospects as an important world oil province and the source of new crude in the Americas. Tupi, the new kid in town, Nov 22, 2007 What Are Our Alternatives--If Fossil Fuels Are Such a Problem?, Apr 4, 2007 From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane, Mar 23, 2007 Report: Brazilian Ethanol is Sustainable, Oct 11, 2006 Lessons from Brazil, May 31, 2006 top

Cambridge Energy Research Associates

Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part 1 - There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously, May 21, 2008 How billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens, oil banker Matthew Simmons, and many others are suggesting that the world is reaching Peak Oil now, and at the same time, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) headed by Pulitzer Prize writer Daniel Yergin, and others such as Exxon Mobil, are not predicting a Peak in global oil production until circa 2040 Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock, Feb 17, 2008 We have been writing for almost 3 years on this site about the privatization of energy data by IHS Energy and the negative impact the lack of accuracy that CERA's historically optimistic claims are having on energy policy. The rebuttals and counteranalysis at TOD to CERAs assertions are too numerous to list. Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable, Jan 10, 2008 Yergin's predictions, if followed, would have cost someone the opportunity to make a fortune...It would seem to me that CERA's numerous predictions of the fall of the price of oil have been false every time. The chart above speaks volumes about their inability to foresee even the near-term future. Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?, Mar 3, 2007 The forecasting record of CERA and other commentators, Dec 12, 2006 Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again", Nov 15, 2006 The IHS Energy View of Peak Oil, Dec 15, 2005 A little more on CERA, Sep 6, 2005 top

Canada

Predictions for Canada’s Natural Gas Production, June 4, 2008 It’s well known that Canadian conventional gas peaked around 2001, but according to a continuing trends prediction case from the National Energy Board, it doesn’t appear as if unconventional gas will be playing a big part, at least compared against 2001 peak production levels.
Canada as an energy superpower, May 22, 2008 Alone, Canada's energy resources, other than oil and uranium reserves, don't look to be particularly impressive. Oil prices or subprime losses?, Dec 22, 2007 Canadian Gas - Decline Sets in, Oct 19, 2007 Kyoto, Canadians, Energy and the Environment, Feb 22, 2007 A Mackenzie Valley Pipe-Dream?, Dec 10, 2006 top

China

Wildcats & Tigers: China's Oil Acquisition Strategy, May 9, 2007 Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again", Nov 15, 2006 Chinese Oil Demand is Surging, Jul 4, 2006 China as the US, or vice versa?, Jan 24, 2006 The Chinese don't think oil is fungible, Aug 25, 2005 Chevron, Oil, and China, Jul 22, 2005 A slightly different view of China, Jul 14, 2005 Shhh...don't tell anyone, but China is Growing..., May 23, 2005 top

Climate Change

Jamais Cascio: Peak Oil vs. Global Warming, March 27, 2008 Jamais Cascio talks about the P. Kharecha and J. Hansen "resources v. climate change" paper this evening, which was talked about here at TOD a few months ago (link). Fire and Rain: The Consequences of Changing Climate on Rainfall, Wildfire and Agriculture, Feb 21, 2008 We Won't Stop Global Warming, Feb 19, 2008 At one time I was really worried about Global Warming...why am I no longer seriously worried? Because I have come to the realization that we are never going to pay the price that it would take to halt — much less reverse — Global Warming. Climate Change — an alternative approach, Nov 21, 2007 The Energy and Environment Round-Up: October 14th 2007, Oct 14, 2007 The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique, Oct 7, 2007 A few reviews of Lomborg's "Cool It", Sep 30, 2007 Sir David King’s View on Peak Oil, Jul 31, 2007 7-7-7: The Launch of Global Warming Inc., July 9, 2007 The Coal Question and Climate Change, Jun 25, 2007 Implications of "Peak Oil" for Atmospheric CO2 and Climate, Mar 22, 2007 Climate Change, Sabre Tooth Tigers and Devaluing the Future, Feb 23, 2007 HOT Hot hot, Feb 13, 2007 IPCC Summary and Fossil Fuel, Feb 12, 2007 Greenland, or why you might care about ice physics, Jan 28, 2007 Peak Oil and Climate Change, Jan 21, 2007 Relocalization: A Strategic Response to Climate Change and Peak Oil, Jun 6, 2007 Dr James Hansen: Can We Still Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Climate Change?, Nov 22, 2006 More Coal Equals More CO2, Oct 22, 2006 top

Coal

Richard Heinberg: Coal in the United States, May 30, 2008 With oil and natural gas prices rising and coal prices still relatively low, the return of the US to a greater reliance on coal might seem inevitable. However, several recent reports suggest that coal reserves, which have shrunk dramatically during the past century, may still be overstated. Canada as an energy superpower, May 22, 2008 Alone, Canada's energy resources, other than oil and uranium reserves, don't look to be particularly impressive. The Coal Crunch is Materializing, May 1, 2008 In recent days a series of media articles surfaced pointing to a concerning situation in China. Coal To Liquids In Australia, April 13, 2008 Energy Minister Martin Ferguson has been talking about gas to liquids (a subject covered here previously) as part of a strategy to address Australia's dependence on imported fuels. The minister has also previously expressed enthusiasm about coal to liquids projects (declaring at a recent CTL and GTL Conference "I regard this industry as the key to securing Australia's energy future"), so in this post I'll have a look at a few CTL projects currently at various stages of development around the country. Hansen to Australian PM: stop coal plants now, March 31, 2008 James Hansen has written an (apparently) open letter to Kevin Rudd, urging that all new coal fired power plants be halted. The rising fortunes of coal - perhaps, March 27, 2008 It is fairly clear that those who are concerned that carbon dioxide is increasing the world’s temperature are becoming more pro-active in stopping this change. Ethanol from Coal, Feb 11, 2008 On the subject of using coal as the source of BTUs for ethanol production, there are two things that stand out. First, the current process of using natural gas to produce ethanol makes little sense, since you can use natural gas directly in a CNG vehicle....Second, the cost of energy per BTU is far lower for coal. Interview with Jean Laherrere, Aug 4, 2007 COAL - The Roundup, July 12, 2007 Another thought on coal supply, Jun 28, 2007 Coal reserves and resources - a gentle cough, Jul 24, 2007 Some history on Coal EROI and UK coal numbers, Jul 9, 2007 The Coal Question and Climate Change, Jun 25, 2007 Coal Mining Reserves - a cautious note, Jun 4, 2007 Peak Coal - Coming Soon?, Apr 4, 2007 top

Collapse

Peak Oil and Economic Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?, March 28, 2008 This is a guest post by Rob Dietz and Brian Czech. Rob Dietz is the executive director of the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE). Olduvai 2008 movie, Mar 1, 2008 As an addendum to the Olduvai 2008 post there's a movie available that digests the main ideas presented there. Olduvai revisited 2008, Feb 28, 2008 The Olduvai Gorge Theory was first laid out by Richard Duncan in 1989, when he observed that world energy per capita had been declining for a decade. He developed the concept of Electrical Civilization, the way of life made possible by widespread and abundant electricity and set it to the period in which world energy per capita is above 30% of its all-time peak. This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge. top

Conference Reports

(in reverse chronological order by conference)
Report on First General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008, University of Basel , May 24, 2008 How can humanity transition from a paradigm of continuous expansion and exponential growth to one of sustainable development and stagnation while avoiding violent resource wars as they are likely to erupt over control of the last remaining oil fields? The ASPO-Italy conference in Torino, May 9, 2008 But it may well be that Italy will be the first industrialized country in the world to experience peak oil for real. Economically weak, strongly dependent on fossil fuels, Italy, despite being known as the "Sun Country", has done nothing exploit renewable energy to weaken her addiction to oil. Italy may well be the miners' canary of peak oil. The national carrier, Alitalia, may be the first major airline in the world to go bankrupt because of high oil prices. Not just Alitalia, but the whole country may go bankrupt if a major supply crisis arrives. It will be an interesting story; stay tuned! Last Week's EIA Conference, April 18, 2008 Last week, the EIA held a special conference, celebrating the 30th anniversary of their founding. They have held smaller one-day conferences in the past, but this was an expanded conference for the occasion. ASPO Houston (2007)
ASPO Houston - a comment, Oct 23, 2007 Houston ASPO - the Workshop day, Oct 18, 2007 ASPO Houston: Day 1, part 1, Oct 19, 2007 Houston ASPO Day 1 part 2, Oct 21, 2007 Houston ASPO Day 2 part 2, Oct 21, 2007 Houston ASPO Day 2 part 2, Oct 22, 2007
ASPO Cork (2007)
The ASPO Conference -First Morning, Sep 17, 2007 The ASPO Conference - First Afternoon, Sep 18, 2007 ASPO 6: Have we reached the tipping point?, Sep 28, 2007 The ASPO Conference - Second Morning, Sep 19, 20074 The ASPO Conference - Final Afternoon, Sep 22, 2007
Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference, Feb 1, 2007 Energy Institute Oil Depletion Conference, Nov 10, 2006 ASPO Boston (2006) ASPO-USA: Geopolitical Implications of Peak Oil Theory, Nov 5, 2006 ASPO 5 (2006, Pisa, Italy) 5th International Conference on Oil and Gas Depletion, Jun 21, 2006 St Louis Renewable Energy Conference - Day 1, Oct 12, 2006 St Louis Renewable Energy Conference - Day 2, Oct 14, 2006 ASPO (2005, Denver)
ASPO-USA Denver Conference Report (Thursday), Nov 11, 2005 ASPO-USA Denver Conference Report (Friday), Nov 12, 2005 First morning of the Conference, Nov 10, 2005
Petrocollapse Conference - Oct 5th NYC, Sep 22, 2005 Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference (Saturday), Sep 27, 2005 Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference (Sunday), Sep 28, 2005 Reviews of the Bartlett Energy Conference, Sep 26, 2005 top

Cuba

The real lessons of Cuba and peak oil, Jan 29, 2008 People looking at changing to a low fossil fuel use society, whether the change comes about due to necessity (peak oil) or by choice (reducing greenhouse gas emissions), often look about for historical and current examples of countries which had large fossil fuel use and then dropped it somewhat or completely.

Education on Peak Oil

Peak Oil Media Guide, July 13, 2008 We need to bring the public up to speed on the realities of energy before we can have any sort of intelligent conversation about reforming energy policy.
Peak Oil 101: Why Isn't This Class Available Yet in My College?, June 7, 2008 Currently, the list of academic institutions offering relevant and up-to-date information and courses geared to confront the imminent energy slope is awfully short.
Converging Environmental Crises Teach-In, April 10, 2008 The Ohio State University Department of Public Health is sponsoring a web-based teach-in today, which they would like TOD readers to help publicize. Science 1101 Part 1: The Science of Oil and Peak Oil, Feb 5, 2008 Part 1 of a two-part series. Science 1101 Part 2: Oil as a Liquid Fuel and Expected Peak Oil Impacts, Feb 5, 2008 Part 2 of a two-part series. Science 1101 - Petroleum and Peak Oil - Old Version, Jan 29, 2008 A university near where I live plans to add a short unit on "Petroleum and Peak Oil" to their Science 1101 course for freshman who are not science majors...I would appreciate any input or comments TOD folks might have. top

Economics and the Economy

CFTC Report on High Oil Prices - "Speculation My A$$", July 23, 2008 We are likely going to continue to witness denial of this obvious but threatening theme from the Wall Street -government-OPEC trifecta. Investment analysts will claim demand destruction, governments will blame speculators and OPEC will posit that the markets remain well supplied.
Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008--July 31 Update, August 1, 2008 Under resource limitations, debtors are likely to find it difficult to pay back loans, as resources become more and more scarce. As a result, default rates are likely to continue to rise.
Conspiracy or Stupidity: The Trouble With Numbers, July 10, 2008 Our politicians don’t seem to grasp the nature and magnitude of the problem. Is it a conspiracy? Or are they just stupid? I am going to argue that it is a problem with numbers.
Emissions taxes and trades, July 8, 2008 There are two basic ways people think of for dealing with emissions of unpleasant substances, aside from banning them entirely - tax them, and trade them.
Why isn't the price of gasoline even higher?, July 9, 2008 In the last year, the price of gasoline has risen by 38%. The prices of other fuels have risen much more--diesel has risen by 64% and jet fuel has risen by 91%, and the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has risen by 100%. Why aren't gasoline prices rising more than they are? Some will recognize this as the "crack spread" issue.
Introducing A New Currency: The Carbon, June 27, 2008 I have decided to create a new currency, the Carbon. You can spend it and earn it, but cannot exchange it between people, because it's a transaction between you and the Earth.
Countdown to $200 oil: $140 oil and speculation, June 30, 2008 There are A LOT of good reasons why oil prices are going up. Let me show you just a few.
Can A 'Shadow OPEC' of 'Global Guerrillas' Set Global Oil Prices?, June 18, 2008 However, the rapidity and volatility of current oil prices may be due to a more narrow set of factors surrounding the production of light sweet crude: the comparative quality and scarcity of light sweet crude, world demand, and guerrilla systems disruption.
Eliminating Subsidies Won't Cut It (Demand for Oil That Is), June 13, 2008 I’ll stake out and defend a somewhat extreme position: reducing, or even eliminating fuel subsidies will not cause a significant, long-term reduction in demand and may even cause demand to increase more quickly than with subsidies in place. More importantly, we must not fall prey to claims that cutting fuel subsidies is an easy solution to our energy problems.
Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease, June 8, 2008 One of the more interesting things about this Friday's economic news was the very obvious connection between the unemployment number and oil prices. What links the two is debt, the defining feature of what I have called the Anglo Disease, ie the highly unequal economy whereby the rich and the financial sector (almost the same thing these days) capture most of the income but hide it by providing cheap debt to the middle classes so that they can continue to spend.
Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil, June 8, 2008 A good many years ago, I read George Soros' "The Alchemy of Finance", which introduced me to the concept of reflexivity, which in a nutshell is when observers of a phenomenon can't help but impact the phenomenon itself via their 'observing', thus changing the original underlying fundamentals and setting in motion a boom-bust dynamic (i.e. more exaggerated trends in both directions). Since Mr. Soros recently spoke to Congress regarding the oil futures market 'bubble', I thought I'd take a closer look at the concept of reflexivity, both as it relates to oil and commodities in general, as well as its broader implications for efforts in raising awareness of global resource constraints.
Fun with Fuel Subsidies and Taxes, June 3, 2008 This post was inspired by a post over at Paul Kedrosky's place entitled Fun with Fuel Subsidies, in which he put up these two graphics and said "Discuss." Now I am doing the same here.
How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills?, May 27, 2008 Perhaps more shocking than the amount of fuel our city vehicles use is how much fuel is used to pick up our residents’ trash, sort it at the transfer station, and then haul it 46 miles round trip to a dump that is running out of capacity. Dmitry Orlov's Book--Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects, May 29, 2008 The ingredients I like to put in my superpower collapse soup are: a severe and chronic shortage in the production of crude oil (the magic elixir of industrial economies), a severe and worsening trade deficit, a runaway military budget and ballooning foreign debt. The heat and agitation can be provided most efficaciously by a humiliating military defeat and widespread fear of a looming catastrophe. Refining 201: The Assay Essay, May 29, 2008 When a refinery purchases crude oil, the key piece of information they need to know about that crude, besides price, is what the crude oil assay looks like. There has been a lot of discussion here at various times about “light sweet”, or “heavy sour”, and how these qualifiers affect the ability of a refiner to turn these crudes into products. Crude Oil: how high can it go? (19th century whaling as a model for oil depletion and price volatility), May 15, 2008 19th century whaling is today one of the best examples we have of a complete cycle of exploitation of a natural resource. What would $120 oil mean for the global economy?, May 11, 2008 "The main conclusion of this note is that $120 oil would have profound negative effects on the world economy and global financial markets...Such oil prices would almost certainly precipitate a global recession." Countdown to $200 oil (3) - no gas tax needed...erm, right..., May 8, 2008 Despite my acknowledging upfront that a gas tax increase is politically deadly, and highly regressive, and my corresponding suggestion to make it part of a plan to (i) directly support those hardest hit by revenue transfers and (ii) use the money raised to invest in alternatives (public transport, renewable energy), [I was sternly scolded on DailyKos for suggesting a gas tax]. ;-) Herman Daly: Towards A Steady-State Economy, May 5, 2008 On theoildrum.com, we discuss the particulars of our energy supply/consumption situation. Less frequently do we have content outlining potential macro solutions that may be necessary to mitigate problems facing human systems. This is such a post - adapted from a paper from last week's Sustainable Development Commission written by Herman Daly [newdream.org] , who popularized the term "Steady State Economy" over 3 decades ago. The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come, May 2, 2008 The notion of our standard work week here in America has remained largely the same since 1938. That was the year the Fair Labor Standards Act was passed, standardizing the eight hour work day and the 40 hour work week...So let's stop and do some math...and I'll try to argue for 16 reasons why a four day work week is a good idea. Thoughts on Demand Destruction: Where Is It?, April 28, 2008 Oil is close to $120/barrel, "peak oil" is everywhere you look, so where’s the demand destruction? Gail Tverberg's Talk: Expected Economic Impact of an Energy Downturn, April 13, 2008 I have been asked to give a short talk about the expected economic impact of an energy downturn. The talk is to be part of public health program called "Converging Environmental Crises: A Teach-in on Energy, Climate Change, Water, Agriculture and Population." Can We Stay in the Suburbs?, April 2, 2008 There is little doubt that during that last 60 years we here in America have transformed our manmade landscape in a way that is fundamentally different from any form of human habitation ever known. Peak Oil and Economic Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?, March 28, 2008 This is a guest post by Rob Dietz and Brian Czech. Rob Dietz is the executive director of the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE). At $100 Oil - What Can the Scientist Say to the Investor?, Jan 4, 2008 The following post is my cut and paste review of a new paper by Charles Hall, Robert Powers, and William Schoenberg titled "Peak Oil, Investments, and the Economy in an Uncertain Future". This paper, along with 16 others (including 2 by theoildrum.com contributors), will be part of an upcoming book edited by Professor David Pimentel, "Renewable Energy Systems: Environmental and Energetic Issues". Demand Destruction: Myths and Reality, Jan 1, 2008 The Freezing Point of Industrial Society, Nov 14, 2007 Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 1: A Flashback, Sep 23, 2007 Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 2: Our Current Situation, Sep 25, 2007 Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 3: What's Ahead?, Oct 1, 2007 The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come, Sep 20, 2007 The Anglo Disease - an introduction, Jun 25, 2007 The Cost of Gasoline around the World, Jun 15, 2007 Gasoline Prices Part II: Long-Term Factors, Jun 13, 2007 Gasoline Prices – Part I: Immediate Causes, Jun 8, 2007 Relocalization: A Strategic Response to Climate Change and Peak Oil, Jun 6, 2007 Interesting Economics, Jul 1, 2006 Miles Data Predicts Big Economic Slowdown, Oct 24, 2005 top

Electricity and the Grid

The U. S. Electric Grid: Will It Be Our Undoing?, May 11, 2008 Quite a few people believe that if there is a decline in oil production, we can make up much of the difference by increasing our use of electricity--more nuclear, wind, solar voltaic, geothermal or even coal. The problem with this model is that it assumes that our electric grid will be working well enough for this to happen. It seems to me that there is substantial doubt that this will be the case. US Electricity Supply Vulnerabilities, Dec 6, 2007 Failure of Networked Systems, Dec 14, 2007 top

Electricity Legislation and Politics

A Compromise on the Drilling Question, July 24, 2008 If these areas (OCS, ANWR) are opened for drilling, I have a compromise that should be very attractive to those in opposition.
Lester addresses U.S. governors on energy future, calls for Marshall Plan for energy innovation, July 20, 2008 It is long past time for serious federal leadership on energy innovation. But it is also time to move beyond the Manhattan/Apollo Project metaphor. A better metaphor might be a domestic Marshall Plan for energy innovation.
Misguided Energy Policies, July 21, 2008 It appears that they don't understand that cheap energy is the very reason we became so dependent upon fossil fuels. We won't wean from fossil fuels if they remain cheap.
Gore sets goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2020, July 18, 2008 The short answer is: while 100% is probably unrealistic, it's not unreasonable to expect to be able to get pretty close to that number (say, in the 50-90% range) in that timeframe, and it is very likely that it makes a LOT of sense economically.
McCain’s Energy Plan: Correct Diagnosis, Killer Prescription, June28, 2008 McCain's proposals are stuck in the very same mindset he criticizes - the one that drove Hillary Clinton to push for lower gas taxes, Bush to call for renewed offshore drilling, or Obama to support coal production in the Appalachians: the fundamentally American notion that there is no limit to what one can do, and that solutions will be found by going for more, or bigger, rather than doing less or smaller.
Let's Discuss: H.R. 6107, the American Energy Independence and Price Reduction Act, May 23, 2008 This is an excerpted letter from Members of Congress Don Young and Roscoe Bartlett asking for other MoC's to support and/or co-sponsor H.R. 6107, an Important Step to American Energy Independence and Price Reductions for Consumers. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett's Peak Oil Special Order Speech May 1, 2008, May 5, 2008 Comments on the Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act of 2008, as well. An Open Letter to Our Next President about Energy Policy, April 30, 2008 Mr. or Madam President, Vice President Dick Cheney once famously quipped "The American way of life is non-negotiable." I submit that while our next president might not be so brash in stating this, the root of our energy problems can be traced to this attitude. But, nature doesn't negotiate. It doesn't appear that any of the remaining presidential candidates understand the basis of the problems we face: Oil is a depleting, finite resource - albeit one crucial for the "American way of life." McCain's Gas Pains: Gas "Tax Holidays" A Good Idea?, April 15, 2008 Discussion on the value of a gas tax holiday. McCain wants a gas tax "holiday." It's a no-brainer, right?, April 15, 2008 Atrocious policies but devious politics from McCain. Maryland Legislation Taps Energy Efficiency as the "First Fuel", April 9, 2008 Governor O'Malley's Energy Efficiency Bills Are Passed by Legislature. The State of the (Energy) Union (and a SOTU open thread), Jan 23, 2007 top

Energy Overview

Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world, July 30, 2008 'This outlook of new scarcity is now exacerbated by the fact that not only available supply will determine what amount of demand can be satisfied; it will also bring about a new allocation of the available oil due to a lack of adequate supply growth compared with demand.
The Ultimate Fight?: The Singularity v. Resource Depletion and the Limits to Growth, June 28, 2008It seems to me that one way the problems we are facing can be analyzed is as a "race." The factors/variables contributing to said "race" are captured by the following concepts:
Energy Export Databrowser, June 10, 2008 Jonathan Callahan, a Ph.D. chemist who spent 12 years working for NOAA, has created a very useful databrowser for exploring the supply/demand situation in various countries around the world.
Is a Net Oil Export Hurricane Hitting the US Gulf Coast?, June 2, 2008 The simple mathematical model I have been using to talk about our export situation is called the Export Land Model (ELM). Recently, data and media reports have shown that the concerns I have expressed about our export situation are growing more valid each day.
The Scales are Balanced, April 14, 2008 Here then is a chart-fest for all of you, showing the balance between countries who expanded their production compared to the previous year and those whose production declined. The Record Falls - January 2008 is the New World Record for Crude Oil (plus Condensate) Production, April 11, 2008 The EIA's newest International Petroleum Monthly shows World C+C production for January was 74,466,000 barrels per day, eclipsing the heretofore peak of May 2005 by 168,000 barrels per day. Oil Rises, Gasoline Climbs to a Record, on U.S. Supply Decline, April 9, 2008 Bumpy Crude Oil Plateau in the Rear View Mirror, April 4, 2008 Which countries are increasing in oil production? Which are decreasing? How is this changing? Can we expect that the increasing ones will continue to increase in 2008? Does the megaprojects data give any insight into the future increases of growing countries? Oilwatch Monthly - April 2008, April 21, 2008 Shell Energy Futures, Jan 25, 2008 Below the fold is the full text of an email sent by Jeroen van der Veer, the CEO of Shell, to all Shell employees. It is a clear acknowledgement of the reality of peak oil, climate change and of the need for comprehensive policy changes, and is worth reading in full. top

Energy Technology

When CHOPS are not a dinner menu, but for heavy oil production, July 30, 2008 The CHOPS process involves a modified procedure for the control of crushed rock or sand coming from the well. In most oil producing practices the completion zone of the well is designed to retain the rock that is crushed around the well (sand), or disturbed by the oil flow to the well. This makes it easier to process the oil once it reaches the surface.
Solving the "Enigma" of Reserve Growth, July 16, 2008 A fraction of the population thinks that oil production remains a simple matter of turning the spigot clockwise to get more oil, and reserve growth a non-issue. And that raising the current reserve inventory becomes a conservative decision made entirely under the control of humans.
How Technology Increases Oil Production, July 17, 2008 How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with? The answer to this question will help us reassess claims that advances in oil field technology will postpone the peak in global oil production.
Offshore drilling: a few useful facts, June 18, 2008 The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030.
Shell's Shale Plans...? (or Why I Am an Oil Shale Skeptic), May 12, 2008 It isn't hard to see why I am an oil shale skeptic. We're Off To See The Wizard - Storing Energy Using Ammonia, April 29, 2008 There were a couple of small Australian solar power projects that I left out of my look at solar thermal power a little while ago, as I thought they were worthy of separate consideration. The first of these is being put together by a South Australian company called Wizard Power, which is trying to commercialise research from the Australian National University (ANU) - a solar concentrator dish and a closed loop thermochemical energy storage system using ammonia. It's Time for Summer Gasoline, April 19, 2008 Just what is summer gasoline? Twice a year, in the fall and in the spring, you hear about the seasonal gasoline transition. However, most people probably don't understand what this actually means. RFK and Garbage Trucks: Two Measures of Success, April 12, 2008 Vincent V. in NYC writes: Garbage trucks are a major source of urban air pollution. One truck pollutes about as much as 350 cars. NYC has been moving to switch utility vehicles to hybrid tech (w/city buses & taxis), but not with garbage trucks. Cracking shale and why horizontal wells are slick, April 10, 2008 This past week, courtesy of Leanan and Gail it seems that there have been more than the usual number of stories on natural gas developments and the potentials of formations such as the Utica shale, the Haynesville shale, and the Marcellus shale. Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power, April 2, 2008 While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out. Cogeneration At Home: Ceramic Fuel Cells And Bloom Energy, March 30, 2008 An Australian company working in [cogeneration] called Ceramic Fuel Cells was in the news recently after landing a $240 million deal with Dutch energy company Nuon to supply 50,000 CHP units by 2014. The Cogeneration Stopgap, Feb 26, 2008 In the end, natural gas will be too expensive to burn just for space heat. The obvious long-term solution for most areas is a combination of superinsulation and passive solar design; if you need no fuel, you don't care how much it costs. [Cogeneration is an interim measure.] Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans, Mar 26, 2006 Overview of ocean energy technology, particularly OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). Cracking oil is not a funny business, Mar 26, 2006 Getting gas from Crude, Mar 12, 2006 Burning coal in place or in-situ gasification, Mar 4, 2006 Clean fuel from dirty coal?, Feb 26, 2006 How carbon dioxide improves recovery, Feb 12, 2005 Coal rank and thoughts on EROEI, Feb 5, 2006 Surface Mining of coal, Jan 29, 2006 Longwall Mining of coal, Jan 22, 2006 A little more on coal mining, Jan 14, 2006 How big an apple, Sir Isaac?, Dec 10, 2005 Finding the field can be a noisy business, Dec 3, 2005 Logging a well, does not mean a two by four between the eyes, Nov 20, 2005 So, if I grow a crack under my neighbors fence, is it still my oil?, Nov 5, 2005 A workover is not the same as a sleep-over, Oct 22, 2005 In coal mines, the Penitent really was, Oct 15, 2005 Is this post rigged, or some information on oil platforms, Oct 2, 2005 Taking a turn for the better - or directional drilling again, Sep 25, 2005 What the eye doesn't see, the heart doesn't grieve over, Sep 17, 2005 Carbonates are not a drink, Sep 2, 2005 An oil production is more than turning a tap, Aug 27, 2005 Pressure, surely not in the oil business?, Aug 13, 2005 Running casing is not a race, Aug 6, 2005 Kelly isn't always an Irishman, Jul 30, 2005 Here's mud in your eye, Jul 24, 2005 Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Peak Oil, Oct 3, 2007 On Energy Transitions Past and Future http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2856 (Aug 8, 2007) http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3442 (Dec 28, 2007) World Energy to 2050: A Half Century of Decline, Nov 10, 2007 USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year, Oct 26, 2007 Questions and Answers on Energy Issues, Oct 21, 2007 Energy Grades and Historic Economic Growth, Aug 24, 2007 "Energy Resources and Our Future" - Speech by Hyman Rickover in 1957, Jun 30, 2007 What Are Our Alternatives--If Fossil Fuels Are Such a Problem?, Apr 4, 2007 That cubic mile, Feb 28, 2007 Key Questions on Energy Options, Jan 24, 2007 The World according to Gave, Sep 28, 2006 top

Europe

The European Gas Market, August 1, 2008 The main message of this post, therefore, is to call upon the politicians of the OECD in Europe to show some rare leadership, and to recognise that massive energy conservation, and expansion of sensible alternative energy schemes, offer a better alternative to the polarisation that is likely to result from allowing market forces to determine the outcome of energy decline.
Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within the EU Peaked?, July 10, 2008 The EU has to a much larger extent (presently approximately twice that of USA) allowed its energy mixture and fossil fuel consumption to be based upon imports.
Dutch government acknowledges peak gas, June 19, 2008 The Dutch government acknowledged in its new energy strategy that Dutch natural gas production has passed its peak. Stating that the peak occurred in 2007/2008 and the Netherlands will have become a net importer of natural gas by 2025.
Post Peak Iberia, June 14, 2008 It all started in Spain, it quickly spread to Portugal and southern France. Lorry drivers are on the streets and on roads protesting against high fuel prices and bringing normal day life to a stand still.
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil, June 9, 2008 Rising North Sea oil production was a significant factor in keeping oil prices under control in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. Production peaked at 6.4 million barrels per day in 2000 and since then, declining North Sea Oil production is one significant reason that oil prices are now rising exponentially. Norway is not a member of the EU but participates substantially in its programs through European Economic Area.
If Portugal Can Do It, Why Can't We ?, June 8, 2008 The country seems to be determined to become free of dependency on fossil fuels as soon as possible, with the country's energy minister also sagely pointing out "When you have a programme like this there is no need for nuclear power. Wind and water are our nuclear power".
European Gas Security: The Future of Natural Gas, May 13, 2008 This is the talk I was honored to deliver to ASPO Italy on 3rd May 2008 at their annual conference in Turin. 24 slides below the fold plus narrative of what I said on the day. Andris Piebalgs' priority number one, April 8, 2008 Andris Piebalgs : getting a sense of proportion, March 29, 2008 Andris Piebalgs continues this Friday his blogging on bio-fuels, addressing some of the concerns expressed by the readers of the last blog-entry. A New Energy Policy for Europe, Jan 12, 2007 Revisiting the EU Energy Plan - and its coverage, Jan 13, 2007 top

Financial Markets

Oil prices or subprime losses?, Dec 22, 2007 So they all knew it was a bubble, now?, Aug 18, 2007 The Resurgence of Risk "A Primer on the Developing Credit Crunch", Aug 14, 2007 Credit markets: 'Don't panic', they beg, Aug 10, 2007 Financial bubble - who will say that the emperor is naked?, May 20, 2007 top

Gasoline

The Cost of Gasoline around the World, Jun 15, 2007 Gasoline Prices Part II: Long-Term Factors, Jun 13, 2007 Gasoline Prices – Part I: Immediate Causes, Jun 8, 2007 top

International Energy Agency

Countdown to $200 oil: International Energy Agency says current prices justified..., July 2, 2008 International Energy Agency published one of its gloomiest ever analyses of the oil markets, asserting that oil prices are justified by fundamentals
Fatih Birol Presents the IEA World Energy Outlook 2007, Dec 7, 2007 IEA: oil demand has surpassed supply, Dec 6, 20071 Does the latest IEA number matter?, Dec 3, 2007 Peak oil: BP, Conoco CEOs say it's here - also IEA's Fatih Birol really freaks out, Nov 11, 2007 IEA boss denies and confirms peak oil in same breath, Jul 12, 2007 The International Energy Association's Medium-Term Oil Market Report, Jul 9, 2007 IEA: without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015, Jun 29, 2007 top

India

The Energy Scene in India, April 9, 2008 As I traveled through India on a recent business trip, the topic of energy was constantly on my mind (as it is every time I travel). I found out some interesting things about jatropha, toured a sugarcane ethanol plant, found a wind farm in the middle of nowhere, and encountered a native ethanol skeptic. Here are my impressions. top

Hydrogen

The H2 Economy vs the Electron Economy, May 31, 2008 Making H2 is extremely hard to justify when you can keep electricity on the grid and charge up a battery instead. This isn't to say that H2 as a fuel is a goner all together, it just means it will have a much smaller impact than previously thought.

Interviews

Ethanol's Energy Balance with Tad Patzek, May 25, 2008 Peak Oil Media - Our president talking about contemporary energy matters, May 14, 2008 Boone Pickens: There's No End in Sight for the Rise in Crude Oil Prices, Oct 18, 2007 Peak Oil Media 9-6-07, Oct 6, 2007 Interview with Jean Laherrere, Aug 4, 2007 Peak Oil Media, Jun 17, 20076 GPM Link Featuring Nate Hagens on "The Reality Report" with Jason Bradford along with Some Other Oldies and Goodies, May 4, 2007 Three Pieces of Peak Oil Media: Simmons/Kilduff and Pickens on CNBC on GAO/Peak Oil and Kunstler on Peak Oil and the Car Culture, Mar 30, 2007 Megan Quinn of Community Solution: What Can We Learn from Cuba's Response to a Lack of Resources?, Feb 27, 2007 An Interview with Michael Klare, Jan 27, 2007 A Conversation with Vinod Khosla, Jul 31, 2006 British MP interviews David Strahan, author "The Last Oil Shock", Jul 16, 2007 An Interview with Trilby Lundberg (or, Prof. Goose May Have a New Sworn Enemy), Jul 11, 2007 A Conversation with Matt Simmons, Nov 15, 2006 Interview with Chris Cook, Originator of the Iranian Oil Bourse, Aug 20, 2006 Grist Interview with Michael Pollan, Jun 1, 2006 Jason Bradford/Stuart Staniford interview, Dec 14, 2005 Grist Interview with Matt Simmons, Nov 7, 2005 Roscoe Bartlett Interview, Oct 14, 2005 Interview with Bill from Time's Up, Oct 4, 2005 A Conversation with Richard Heinberg, Sep 30, 2005 Interview with Mayor Nagin of NOLA, Sep 2, 2005 Kunstler radio interview, Jun 10, 2005l top

Mainstream Media

Peak Oil Media:, July 26, 2008 In James Howard Kunstler's view, public spaces should be inspired centers of civic life and the physical manifestation of the common good.
Peak Oil Media: Matt Simmons gets more pessimistic on CNBC, Heinberg, and others..., July 13, 2008
Peak Oil Media: "Humans > Yeast?", Moyers, Kunstler, Rubin, Olbermann & Krugman, June 28, 2008
Peak Oil Media: Simmons Says Raised Saudi Oil Output Is 'Drop in Bucket' on Bloomberg, June 17, 2008
All that's wrong with 'common wisdom' in one article, June 2, 2008 This article from The Telegraph is a wonderful example of pundit cluelessness and or wanton incompetence, and I'm going to rip it to shreds in detail below.
Peak Oil Media - Matt Simmons on CNBC, May 31, 2008 "What we need to worry about is not high prices, but shortages - especially for diesel. The economists ought to be embarrassed, and the energy economists are the worst of the lot."
If you think the oil situation is bad.., April 26, 2008 It's hard for oil not to be in the news at the moment, but we haven't seen coverage like this very often. This article by Jad Mouawad is from the New York Times, but today it was published as a full page feature in the The Age Business section in Melbourne: Shell Sponsoring Peak Oil Communication?, April 2, 2008 Click on the image to the right to download the .pdf of a full page "advert" which appeared in both Time and Fortune magazines over Easter. It was written by Jeremy Leggett, the prominent peak oil and climate change commentator and proponent of renewable energy (also Chairman of Solarcentury). top

Mexico

Wow. Peak Oil Is on The History Channel. (or, the "Megadisasters: Oil Apocalypse" Open Thread), Nov 13, 2007 £1 per Litre Petrol Drives Peak Oil on Mainstream TV, Nov 8, 2007 Boone Pickens: There's No End in Sight for the Rise in Crude Oil Prices, Oct 18, 2007 Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?, Sep 10, 2007 Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production, Feb 7, 2007 An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers, Jan 27, 2007 top

Middle East

Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production, July 29, 2008 There are many uncertainties in liquids forecasts mainly because of the poor quality of the data for production and population. Saudi Arabia should improve the quality of these data in order to manage the coming crisis.
What fraction of America's $4+ gallon gasoline is due to the war in Iraq?, July 11, 2008 Earlier today, someone asserted that well over half (or more than $2) of America's $4.10 gallon of gas is due to the war. Another person asked "Is that right?" And, after pulling out some hair from my head, my response was both short and then long.
Bread and Oil: Rising Food Prices and the Middle East, Mar 3, 2008 The use of food crops for biofuels is one of the key factors driving a dramatic increase in the global price of cereals. As Stuart Staniford demonstrated here in the past few weeks, this trend is set to intensify. This article will look at the potential implications of rising wheat prices for countries in the Middle East, taking Egypt and Morocco as examples. World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008, Feb 17, 2008

Multimedia

Peak Oil Media: "Humans > Yeast?", Moyers, Kunstler, Rubin, Olbermann & Krugman, June 28, 2008
Peak Oil Media: Simmons Says Raised Saudi Oil Output Is 'Drop in Bucket' on Bloomberg, June 17, 2008
Putting a New Face on Selling Peak Oil: Kris Can, June 1, 2008 Kriscan - a young woman with a video blog that's making her PO pitch using all sorts of innovative marketing techniques - asking people on the street, making a song about peak oil, and yes even resorting to the types of suggestive body language more typical of an MTV music video (think Christina Aguilera) than college professor lecture.
Peak Oil Media - Matt Simmons on CNBC, May 31, 2008 "What we need to worry about is not high prices, but shortages - especially for diesel. The economists ought to be embarrassed, and the energy economists are the worst of the lot."
Eco-Driving promoted by the European Commission", June 1, 2008 But before going out for a demonstration against who ever you may think is responsible for high fuel prices, there are a few things you can do to ease the pain: it's called Eco-Driving. Peak Oil on Dutch Television", May 26, 2008 Last Friday our blogger Rembrandt was interviewed about Peak Oil on the Dutch Television show NOVA. About the rising price of crude in light of his upcoming book 'The Permanent Oil Crisis', the first Peak Oil book to be published in Dutch in the beginning of June. Hirsch on CNBC: Peak oil problem "as massive as one can possibly imagine", May 14, 2008 Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon gasoline followed by rationing. Peak Oil Media - Our president talking about contemporary energy matters, May 14, 2008 Peak Oil Media: Food v. (Bio)fuel, Fast Money saying "It's Supply, Stupid" and Cramer on Ending the Ethanol Mandate, May 3, 2008 you will find two youtube videos that are worth your time. The first is from Fast Money [fastmoney.cnbc.com] (CNBC) yesterday entitled "It's Supply, Stupid." After a bit of discussion on the panel, Joe Terranova provides a really nice discussion (about 4 mins) of the reasoning behind why the price oil is rising: supply and demand. Also included is an excellent graph on biofuels. James Howard Kunstler: Colbert Appearance and a Response to Critics, May 3, 2008 Kunstler: I don't intend to mount a "defense" against all your complaints, but would like to make a few brief points. Olduvai 2008 movie, Mar 1, 2008 As an addendum to the Olduvai 2008 post there's a movie available that digests the main ideas presented there. ASPO 6 Ireland DVDs and ASPO-USA 2007 Houston Conference DVDs, Mar 1, 2008 In 2007, there were two conferences by Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) groups:
ASPO 6 - World ASPO Groups - Cork, Ireland - September 2007 ASPO-USA - Houston, Texas - October 2007

Natural Gas

The European Gas Market, August 1, 2008 The main message of this post, therefore, is to call upon the politicians of the OECD in Europe to show some rare leadership, and to recognise that massive energy conservation, and expansion of sensible alternative energy schemes, offer a better alternative to the polarisation that is likely to result from allowing market forces to determine the outcome of energy decline.
Plan for Hydro-Fracture Drilling for Unconventional Natural Gas in Upstate New York, July 23, 2008 New York State is about to approve Hydro-Fracture Drilling permits for Upstate New York in the area of the Marcellus Shale. There is a major concern about the impact on waste water containing many toxic chemicals, including areas near NYC drinking water reserviors.
Looking for answers, a slight cough, and thoughts on Boone's plan, July 18, 2008 ...while the pain is immediate, remedial steps can either occur quite quickly or much more slowly – depending on the local government understanding of the situation.
And some (natural gas) answers are expensive, July 8, 2008 Gazprom forecasts that Russian gas prices will reach 500 U.S. dollars per 1,000 cubic meters by the end of 2008. "If oil prices exceed in the future 250 dollars a barrel, then gas prices will grow to 1,000 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters," Miller said.
Dutch government acknowledges peak gas, June 19, 2008 The Dutch government acknowledged in its new energy strategy that Dutch natural gas production has passed its peak. Stating that the peak occurred in 2007/2008 and the Netherlands will have become a net importer of natural gas by 2025.
Predictions for Canada’s Natural Gas Production, June 4, 2008 It’s well known that Canadian conventional gas peaked around 2001, but according to a continuing trends prediction case from the National Energy Board, it doesn’t appear as if unconventional gas will be playing a big part, at least compared against 2001 peak production levels.
US Natural Gas: Lessons from BP's Tight Gas Facility in Wamsutter WY, June 3, 2008 In 2005, BP made a decision to change the way it managed the Wamsutter gas field. Instead of simply following the conventional gas drilling model, it would put together its own model, one more in line with maximizing productivity as a tight gas facility.
Canada as an energy superpower, May 22, 2008 Alone, Canada's energy resources, other than oil and uranium reserves, don't look to be particularly impressive. European Gas Security: The Future of Natural Gas, May 13, 2008 This is the talk I was honored to deliver to ASPO Italy on 3rd May 2008 at their annual conference in Turin. 24 slides below the fold plus narrative of what I said on the day. Natural Gas - the future of fuel ?, May 2, 2008 The ABC's "7:30 Report" last night had a look at the large amount of optimism that many people have regarding Australia's natural gas reserves - "As world oil prices skyrocket, experts warn Australia must find an alternative source of fuel. Some argue a cheaper, greener solution is right under the nation's nose: natural gas." Short-term supplies of natural gas, April 2, 2008 And my tiny mind asks, where, with a 20-inch (50 cm) snowstorm does one find this source to supply a city of 1,148,800 inhabitants in the short term? North American Natural Gas Production and EROI Decline, Feb 27, 2008 Creating an Energy Transition Plan away from natural gas requires at least a rough forecast of future production. Two very different forecasts for North American natural gas exist. Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas?, Dec 20, 2007 The European Gas Market, Dec 11, 2007 Natural Gas and Complacency, Dec 4, 2007 LNG To The Rescue?, Nov 27, 2006 Canadian Gas - Decline Sets in, Oct 19, 2007 A Mackenzie Valley Pipe-Dream?, Dec 10, 2006 The North American Red Queen: Our Natural Gas Treadmill, Nov 9, 2006 Questions About the World's Biggest Natural Gas Field, Jun 9, 2006 top

Nigeria

Nigeria – The Significance of the Bonga Offshore Oil Platform Attack, June 24, 2008 This assumption--that far offshore facilities are beyond the reach of militants--must now be reconsidered.
Nigeria: Energy Infrastructure Firestorm http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2692 (Jul 8, 2007) http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2348 (Mar 11, 2007) Nigeria: A Closer Look at "Above Ground Factors", Jun 21, 2007 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2687 top

Nuclear

Andris Piebalgs: Nuclear and the EU's Energy Policy, May 19, 2008 Without taboos, Andris lays down the advantages of Nuclear energy that have put it at the core of the Commission's New Energy Policy for Europe. Canada as an energy superpower, May 22, 2008 Alone, Canada's energy resources, other than oil and uranium reserves, don't look to be particularly impressive. Continuing the Nuclear Debate, April 3, 2008 We have run several articles recently on nuclear power and without fail they have stimulated enthusiastic debate. This is an opportunity to continue that debate. Nuclear Britain, Jan 15, 2008 ...considering the nuclear cliff, has the decision come too late to maintain the nuclear contribution? New Nuclear Reactors For The UK: Is This Really A Good Idea?, Jan 1, 2008 Uranium Depletion and Nuclear Power: Are We at Peak Uranium?, Mar 21, 2007 Is Nuclear Power a Viable Option for Our Energy Needs?, Mar 1, 2007 Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil? http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2806 (Jul 24, 2007) http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2164 (Jan 11, 2007) Nuclear Power for the Oilsands, May 26, 2007 How Uranium Depletion Affects the Economics of Nuclear Power, Apr 18, 2007 top

Oil Forecasts and Peak Oil Predictions

The devil is in the production details of Saudi Arabia, June 23, 2008 We are to believe that Saudi Arabia will produce 12.5 million barrels per day at the end of 2009 and a potential 15 million barrels per day in the coming decade. How should such announcements be valued?
World Oil Exports [01] Angola, July 1, 2008 Angola is one of the few oil producing countries with a bright future ahead.
World Oil Exports [00] Introduction, June 27, 2008 The authors found not only that the volume of oil available to the market will follow a dynamic of its own, declining faster than total production, but also that the number of exporting countries would diminish, compromising the diversity of supply.
Peak Oil Overview - June 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available), June 26, 2008 This is an update of my Peak Oil Overview at March '08. The major changes since my earlier post are the recent apparent decline in Russian production, the new ASPO peak oil projection, and discussion of the recent consumer producer summit in Saudi Arabia (slide 14). I also mention the expected change in IEA's November 2008 forecast of world production.
Energy Export Databrowser, June 10, 2008 Jonathan Callahan, a Ph.D. chemist who spent 12 years working for NOAA, has created a very useful databrowser for exploring the supply/demand situation in various countries around the world.
Peak Oil Overview - March 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available), May 25, 2008 Preliminary data regarding oil production through December 2007 is now available from the US Energy Information Administration, so it is a good time to put together an updated summary of where we are now with respect to peak oil. Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows, May 27, 2008 In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries. Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part 1 - There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously, May 21, 2008 How billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens, oil banker Matthew Simmons, and many others are suggesting that the world is reaching Peak Oil now, and at the same time, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) headed by Pulitzer Prize writer Daniel Yergin, and others such as Exxon Mobil, are not predicting a Peak in global oil production until circa 2040 Why oil costs over $120 per barrel, May 30, 2008 With oil reaching $135 / barrel, Oil Drum readership exceeding 30,000 unique visitors per day and many wild stories circulating in the MSM as to why oil prices are so high this post strives to explain why oil prices are rising exponentially. $100 a barrel: Going, Going...., May 6, 2008 In January 2006 Phoenix emailed me a spreadsheet that predicted an oil price of $100/barrel by 2008, followed by an ongoing geometric rise in oil prices...Here is the story of how Phoenix became Peak Oil aware and generated his Price Calculator. Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates, Mar 11, 2008 When Will Russia (and the World) Decline?, Nov 5, 2007 Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? and Other Oil Supply Insights, Oct 9, 2007 ...To Grandmother's House We Go: Peak Oil Is Here, Sep 26, 2007 Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates, Aug 30, 2007 World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia - Update Aug 2007, Aug 22, 2007 World Crude Oil Production Forecast using Current Fields and Future Megaprojects, Dec 28, 2006 top

Other Liquids (inc. Ethanol)

Updated Corn Ethanol Economics, June 25, 2008 So, if I was a commmodities investor, I would probably go long ethanol right now.

Oil Sands

Canada as an energy superpower, May 22, 2008 Alone, Canada's energy resources, other than oil and uranium reserves, don't look to be particularly impressive. Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 2, Sep 9, 2007 Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 1, Aug 25, 2007 For this week's article, I collaborated with energy journalist Roel Mayer, a freelance writer on earth, energy and economy, based in Canada. He was also the one who coined "The Law of Receding Horizons." For those who missed my previous articles on receding horizons, it is a simple concept: as the cost of energy rises, the cost of everything else made with energy (like building materials) also rises. So an energy project which was expected to be profitable when energy costs were x amount higher than today, turns out to still be uneconomical when you get there. Nuclear Power for the Oilsands, May 26, 2007 top

Peak Everything Else

A Pretty Stunning Graph of World Cement Production (and China is Certainly Using It), June 20, 2008 Cement is mainly used to make concrete, and is sort of the "active ingredient" in concrete - it is combined with sand and gravel in roughly fixed proportions. So cement production can be considered a rough proxy for the total amount of construction going on in a country.
Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories, Feb 16, 2008 These results indicate that, in the coming decades (or even years), we may see the reversal of some of the growth trends that we came to see as the natural order of things. Peaking and decline is expected not just for fossil fuels, as shown before by Laherrere, but also for most mineral commodities (see a recent study by Bardi and Pagani). These are just subsystems of a vaster system that may collapse in the coming years according to the LTG models. The future of mining machines, Jan 31, 2008 Ugo Bardi produced a rather grim look into the future with his recent piece on the Universal Mining Machine, and the various considerations of what we are going to do as the major mining sources of the different ores that are required start to run out. I would rather like to take another tack, and comment instead on the need that the mining industry will face, at some point soon, in having to significantly change the way in which it mines and processes ore. The Implications of Biofuel Production for United States Water Supplies, Nov 29, 2007 Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, Oct 24, 2007 Peak Minerals, Oct 15, 2007 top

Peak Oil Theory

10 Fundamental Principles of Net Energy Analysis,July 31, 2008 Interest in net energy analysis was rekindled in recent years following another round of energy price increases, growing concern about energy's role in climate change, and the debate surrounding the remaining lifetime of conventional fossil fuels, especially crude oil.
Asking one of the less comfortable questions about our energy future..., July 10, 2008 At present there is still considerable complacency about how the oil supply situation will play out. There is an implication that this is just a difficult period to get through, and that, in a relatively short time the situation will get better.
The Derivation of "Logistic-shaped" Discovery, June 26, 2008 The post addresses the origins and relevance (or lack thereof) of the logistic equation as it is commonly used in projecting/modeling oil production forecasts. As far as I can see, this is the first time anyone has succeeded in deriving the Logistic oil model from first principles.
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Reserves: Particulars or Propaganda?, June 15, 2008 Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi will "convene a meeting of representatives of producer and consumer nations and firms operating in the production, export and trading of oil to discuss the jump in prices, its causes and how to deal with it objectively.
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil, June 9, 2008 Rising North Sea oil production was a significant factor in keeping oil prices under control in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. Production peaked at 6.4 million barrels per day in 2000 and since then, declining North Sea Oil production is one significant reason that oil prices are now rising exponentially.
Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008), July 5, 2008 This is an update on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Database maintained by the Oil Megaprojects task force (Ace, Stuart Staniford, myself and many others). The database contains now more than 425 separate entries and is growing everyday. Despite the database growth, the outcome seems to become more pessimistic with time. Wave/Geothermal - Energy Return on Investment (EROI) (Part 6 of 6), May 14, 2008 This is the final piece of a series on Energy Return on Investment from Professor Charles Hall [esf.edu] 's EROI Workshop at SUNY. Today's papers outline the energy technologies of wave and geothermal power. The Energy Return of (Industrial) - Passive Solar, PV, Wind and Hydro (5 of 6), April 29, 2008 Below is 4th in a series of installments by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students attempting to update the 'balloon graph' of EROI x Scale for fossil and renewable energy sources with help from theoildrum.com readership. A Real Time Example of Energy Quality- How Wind Turbines are Subsidized by Fossil Fuels, April 28, 2008 Global oil depletion is not immune to the Law of Receding Horizons, the Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns, nor it seems to the Law of Unintended Consequences. The Grangemouth refinery shutdown has apparently caused work on a new wind farm in Scotland to shut down for lack of diesel fuel. Though at this stage this is a short-term snafu, it's a real time example of how lack of systems analysis of our energy problem will lead to unanticipated problems. The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?, April 26, 2008 The Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana has generated a lot of buzz in the past year. Reserve numbers in the billions of barrels, even tens or hundreds of billions show up in press reports and blogs. Now the USGS has weighed in with a comprehensive assessment of the resource. So just how much will this oil accumulation help the world's largest importer of oil? The Energy Return of Nuclear Power (EROI on the Web-Part 4 of 6), April 22, 2008 This is 4th in a continuing series of articles by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students, describing the energy statistic, "EROI" for various fuels. Hydrates updated, April 16, 2008 Jean Laherrere discusses updates to his papers on hydrates. Unconventional Oil: Tar Sands and Shale Oil - EROI on the Web, Part 3 of 6, April 15, 2008 This is 3rd in a series of 5 guest posts by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry describing the energy statistic, "EROI" for various fuels. EROI on the Web part 2 of 6, (Provisional Results Summary, Imported Oil, Natural Gas), April 8, 2008 This is the second of a five part series on net energy research resulting from Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students during last semesters "EROI Sweatshop". While it is still in draft form, it is hoped (with some help from TOD readers) to be refined and directed into the formal peer review literature. EROI Post - A Response from Charlie Hall, April 7, 2008 On Tuesday we ran Part 1 of a 5 part series of EROI posts by Professor Charles Hall and his energy students. Professor Hall (to my surprise) read through all theoildrum comments and sent me an email with his responses and some summary comments, which I have posted below. Why EROI Matters (Part 1 of 6), April 1, 2008 This is the first of a five part series of guest posts by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students and collaborative researchers The Disconnect Between Oil Reserves and Production, Mar 6, 2008 If a person looks at published oil reserves, it is easy to get the idea that there are huge amounts of oil left to be extracted. One would think that there is no way that peak oil should be a concern. Once we look at the situation a more closely, we discover that published oil reserves really aren't all that helpful in telling us about future production. In fact, the evidence suggests that oil shortages may not be many years away. Whither The Bumpy Plateau?, Feb 25, 2008 Review of recent oil production figures. Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories, Feb 16, 2008 These results indicate that, in the coming decades (or even years), we may see the reversal of some of the growth trends that we came to see as the natural order of things. Peaking and decline is expected not just for fossil fuels, as shown before by Laherrere, but also for most mineral commodities (see a recent study by Bardi and Pagani). These are just subsystems of a vaster system that may collapse in the coming years according to the LTG models. Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data, Jan 3, 2008 Shedding Light on the Question of Reserves Growth, Dec 7, 2007 Application of the Dispersive Discovery Model, Nov 27, 2007 The Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar, Oct 10, 2007 An Extension of the World Import/Export Land Model, Jun 27, 2007 Finding Needles in a Haystack, Jun 27, 2007 GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results), Apr 27, 2007 GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology), Apr 25, 2007 The Shock Model (Part II), Apr 17, 2007 Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection, Apr 9, 2007 The Shock Model: A Review (Part I), Apr 5, 2007 Does the Peak Oil "Myth" Just Fall Down? -- Our Response to CERA, Feb 4, 2007 Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle", Jul 13, 2007 In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method, Jun 24, 2007 Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?, Mar 22, 2007 Predicting the Past: The Hubbert Linearization, Mar 12, 2007 World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection, Oct 10, 2006 Update on Megaprojects, Dec 10, 2007 How to Address Contrarian Arguments - Part I, Nov 23, 2006 How to address Contrarian Arguments - Part II, Dec 24, 2006 A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important?, Aug 4, 2006 Besides water, energy is the most important substance for life on the planet. This post explores what net energy is, why its important and how its principles may impact the future organization of our society. Using Hubbert Method on EIA Data - The Tiger Chasing its Tail?, Jun 13, 2006 Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters, Jan 27, 2006 We're In Deep Water, Oct 7, 2005 4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares?, Sep 6, 2005 top

Population, Agriculture and Food Supply

A protein possibility for the "oil we eat:" the in-vitro meat beast!, May 8, 2008 While I don't want to restart the debate about "reversalists", I think it's worth looking at where a large amount of the grain we produce goes - meat production. Food to 2050, Mar 10, 2008 This post continues an exercise I began a month or so ago of trying to figure out how civilization could be moved to a mostly sustainable footing by 2050, while still being recognizable as civilization, and in particular allowing some continued level of economic growth between now and then, especially in the developing countries. The Next Agriculture?, Mar 7, 2008 This is a guest post by John Michael Greer, who blogs at The Archdruid Report. John is the Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America (AODA) and has been active in the alternative spirituality movement for more than 25 years, and is the author of a dozen books, including "The Druidry Handbook" (Weiser, 2006). He lives in Ashland, Oregon. USA Grain Exports - Where to, how much?, Mar 5, 2008 This post looks at the role the USA plays in global grain (wheat, corn, sorghum) and soybean (soya bean) trade, since the USA is to a large extent the world's breadbasket and there are concerns over this role in the light of the current corn-to-ethanol expansion. The article begins by looking, very briefly, at how similar concerns were raised about 20 years ago, due to the potential effects of global warming on US grain production. Bread and Oil: Rising Food Prices and the Middle East, Mar 3, 2008 The use of food crops for biofuels is one of the key factors driving a dramatic increase in the global price of cereals. As Stuart Staniford demonstrated here in the past few weeks, this trend is set to intensify. This article will look at the potential implications of rising wheat prices for countries in the Middle East, taking Egypt and Morocco as examples. The Fallacy of Reversibility, Jan 21, 2008 ...[many peak oilers think that] we are going to have to give up the big combine harvesters, the thunderous power of 275 horsepower tractors, and instead we will have to return to small-scale, hand-labor organic production...but my recent explorations of food prices and biofuels have sharpened up my conviction that the thinking behind this position is mistaken. Death Rates and Food Prices, Jan 14, 2008 ...many people in poor countries are subsistence farmers, and some poor economies are not really connected to the global commodity markets. So this raises the question - how do death rates in poor countries really respond to global commodity markets? One way to explore this is to look at the global food crisis of the early 1970s. Does Less Energy Mean More Farmers?, Dec 21, 2007 Food Price Inflation, Dec 17, 2007 World Energy to 2050: A Half Century of Decline, Nov 10, 2007 Six steps to "getting" the global ecological crisis, Nov 4, 2007 Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, Oct 24, 2007 Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room, May 7, 2007 Revisiting the Olduvai Theory, Mar 6, 2006 Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference, Feb 1, 2007 More thoughts on ethanol after the State of the Union...what will farmers do, and have they read the research?, Jan 29, 2007 Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy, Nov 28, 2006 top

Preparedness and Transition

Telework Pros and Cons: 28 Reasons To "Telework"--With Data To Back Them Up, July 22, 2008 While the concept of telework has been simmering for years, soaring gas prices are fanning the flame such that we may have finally reached a tipping point.
Enjoying Life Close to Home: Fun Streets, July 19, 2008 As we consider how to re-design our car-centric landscape, one idea that may be taking hold across the country is to close streets to automobile traffic at times and return that space to the people as a public space to be enjoyed.
Food Sovereignty and the Collapse of Nations, July 25, 2008 A swift move towards self sufficiency, along with a return to local interdependency, could go a long way towards mitigating our problems and stabilizing our democratic goals and aims.
Smart Growth Gets a New Look, July 12, 2008 I've long thought that good urban planning and mixed use zoning is a large part of the answer to dealing with our dependence on automobiles/oil as well as having many social, public safety and environmental benefits.
Abundant Skies: 8 Principles for Successful Rainwater Harvesting, July 5, 2008 Energy scarcity and water scarcity are closely related phenomena, especially in certain parts of the world. While rainwater harvesting is no panacea for our water or energy problems, it may be a critical component in many regions for dealing with issues of scarcity. It is also an excellent example of a scale-free tool: it can be implemented by individuals, communities, or nations.
Performance Governing: Getting Lucky and Staying Lucky, July 4, 2008 Facing the facts and acting to resolve them can defeat Peak Oil and Global Warming, both civilization killers. A primary fact is that our current infrastructure is the cause of these killers.
Will Wartime Mobilisation Address Peak Oil?, July 2, 2008What is a wartime mobilisation, what triggers one and what relevance does such thinking have to today’s challenges?
Energy Transitions Past and Future, July 1, 2008 A more fundamental issue is the magnitude and nature of the energy transition that will eventually occur. The next energy transition undoubtedly will have far reaching impacts just as fire and fossil fuels did.
Green Cottage: eco-renovation of a 100-year-old Victorian end-terrace, June 14, 2008 An inspiring account of what can be done today with a modest property to live efficiently and maintain a degree of energy security.
Future Scenarios: Mapping the Cultural Implications of Peak Oil and Climate Change, May 26, 2008 The Australian co-founder of the permaculture concept David Holmgren has today launched a new global scenario planning website, Future Scenarios: A Twelve-Step Plan to End Oil Addiction, May 24, 2008 Our addiction to oil has been bad for us for a long time. We’ve paid a high price for it in terms of high greenhouse gas emissions and cities choked by cars. But now we can’t afford our regular fix any more. So here’s what we need to do to conquer our addiction. It won’t be easy, but it will be worthwhile — and besides, we don’t really have a choice. Biomimicry and Ocean Generated Energy: Are Humans Smarter Than Sea Sponges?, May 25, 2008 The field of biomimicry (also called "biomimetics" and "bionics") is a new one that has gathered an increasing amount of attention in recent years, with advocates promoting these types of designs as being efficient ways to harness natural resources and to use them in a sustainable way. A Sustainable Futures Fund for a Fuel and Climate Emergency, Mar 8, 2008 This is a guest post by Garry Glazebrook, who is an urban transport consultant and urban planning lecturer at the University of Technology, Sydney. The Sustainable Futures Fund is described in the Australian context, but with our population of 21 million and a local currency approaching 1:1 with the US dollar, the figures suggested here could be considered comparable with those required in a moderate size state in the USA. Powering Civilization to 2050, Jan 28, 2008 This post is the start of an attempt to sketch out what an integrated solution to the world's food, energy, land, climate, and economy problems might look like. My basic goal is to get to a somewhat defensible story of how civilization could get to 2050 in reasonable shape, despite the problems of climate change, peak oil, global population growth, etc. Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, Oct 24, 2007 Prepping for Peak: How Fast Can We Change?, Oct 14, 2007 Poverty of Vision, Oct 5, 2007 Review: How Can We Outlive Our Way of Life?, Oct 2, 2007 Relocalization: A Strategic Response to Climate Change and Peak Oil, Jun 6, 2007 A Conversation on Energy Issues, Dec 21, 2006 More Sustainlane: U.S. Cities' Preparedness for an Oil Crisis, Apr 3, 2006 Lessons from Brazil, May 1, 2006 top

Press Releases

Future Scenarios: Mapping the Cultural Implications of Peak Oil and Climate Change, May 26, 2008 The Australian co-founder of the permaculture concept David Holmgren has today launched a new global scenario planning website, Future Scenarios: Oil Price Closes Above $100 a Barrel - New Peak Oil Press Release, Feb 20, 2008 This is another press release about $100 barrel oil. It is fairly similar to the one we sent out in January when oil hit an intraday high of $100 barrel. President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply: The ISEOF/TOD Press Release, Jan 18, 2008 Oil Price Touches $100 a Barrel; Signal of Pending Oil Shortages Ignored, Jan 6, 2008 top

Psychology

Conspiracy or Stupidity: The Trouble With Numbers, July 10, 2008 Our politicians don’t seem to grasp the nature and magnitude of the problem. Is it a conspiracy? Or are they just stupid? I am going to argue that it is a problem with numbers.
Status and Curiosity - On the Origins of Oil Addiction, July 7, 2008 This post examines our own history on the planet, outlines how the ancient-derived reward pathways of our brain are easily hijacked by modern stimuli, and concludes that in very real ways, we have become addicted to the 'consumptive behaviors' linked to oil.
Peak Oil 101: Why Isn't This Class Available Yet in My College?, June 7, 2008 Currently, the list of academic institutions offering relevant and up-to-date information and courses geared to confront the imminent energy slope is awfully short.
What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon?, May 26, 2008 So the point is to jump so far out there - $100/gal - that there is no question that 99% of us would have to make some serious changes. A Twelve-Step Plan to End Oil Addiction, May 24, 2008 Our addiction to oil has been bad for us for a long time. We’ve paid a high price for it in terms of high greenhouse gas emissions and cities choked by cars. But now we can’t afford our regular fix any more. So here’s what we need to do to conquer our addiction. It won’t be easy, but it will be worthwhile — and besides, we don’t really have a choice. Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized, Mar 9, 2008 Cassandra's story is very old: she was cursed that she would always tell the truth and never be believed. But it is also a very modern story and, perhaps, the quintessential Cassandras of our age are the group of scientists who prepared and published in 1972 the book titled "The Limits to Growth". Six steps to "getting" the global ecological crisis, Nov 4, 2007 Living for the Moment while Devaluing the Future, Jun 1, 2007 A Letter to My Brother: Peak Oil in Greater Detail, Apr 8, 2007 Climate Change, Sabre Tooth Tigers and Devaluing the Future, Feb 23, 2007 top

Russia

And some (natural gas) answers are expensive, July 8, 2008 Gazprom forecasts that Russian gas prices will reach 500 U.S. dollars per 1,000 cubic meters by the end of 2008. "If oil prices exceed in the future 250 dollars a barrel, then gas prices will grow to 1,000 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters," Miller said.
Russia's Oil Production is About to Peak, April 24, 2008 Since 2005, the Russian oil industry has been in constant turmoil. Production growth has also slowed down significantly maybe as a result. The Evolving situation between Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan, Jan 9, 2007 More on the Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia oil and gas confrontations, Jan 11, 2007 Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again", Nov 15, 2006 top

Saudi Arabia

Yet Another Forecast for Saudi Oil Production, August 12, 2008 ...the most recent production peak in 2006 will be surpassed with the additions of the Khurais and Manifa producing areas. Beyond these, however, more rapid decline of Ghawar and other older fields will overwhelm any potential additions from their remaining as yet undeveloped fields.
Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production, July 29, 2008 There are many uncertainties in liquids forecasts mainly because of the poor quality of the data for production and population. Saudi Arabia should improve the quality of these data in order to manage the coming crisis.
The devil is in the production details of Saudi Arabia, June 23, 2008 We are to believe that Saudi Arabia will produce 12.5 million barrels per day at the end of 2009 and a potential 15 million barrels per day in the coming decade. How should such announcements be valued?
Peak Oil Media: Simmons Says Raised Saudi Oil Output Is 'Drop in Bucket' on Bloomberg, June 17, 2008
Saudi Arabia - opening the tap?, June 20, 2008 Today it is possible that as oil prices rise, both OPEC and Saudi Arabia may become the villain in articles and political slogans. Given the possible outcomes of such positioning, it is perhaps not surprising that, as another American election swings into the beginning of the end game, that oil suppliers, perhaps sensing this, are indicating the chance of a greater flexibility in supply.
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Reserves: Particulars or Propaganda?, June 15, 2008 Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi will "convene a meeting of representatives of producer and consumer nations and firms operating in the production, export and trading of oil to discuss the jump in prices, its causes and how to deal with it objectively.
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved), May 8, 2008 Analysts Neil McMahon and Ben Dell from Bernstein Research are back [online.wsj.com] with more analysis. As promised, they have returned with a study purporting to show that Ghawar is not rapidly depleting because it is not sinking. Using the the technique of Synthetic Aperature Radar (SAR) Interferometry, which is capable of measuring millimeter vertical movements via satellite, they found not subsidence but actually a slight rise in one area....Alas, they have misplaced Ghawar by a few miles, rendering their interpretations misplaced as well. This can't end well. Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah, March 31, 2008 NOW SHOWING: a movie on the drilling of Uthmaniyah. Using a set of wells in a productive (but now rather depleted) slice of this part of the Saudi oil field of Ghawar, it is possible to deduce to drilling sequence of these wells using the identifiers assigned to the wells as they are drilled. Given a few known dates for well placement, a timeline for overall development can be constructed and displayed as an animation. Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Reserves Propaganda, Mar 4, 2008 # In 2004, Saudi Aramco stated that its oil initially in place (OIIP) has been growing steadily since 1982. There is considerable doubt about the validity of this increase, given the lack of new oil discoveries and the unusual nature of its steady continuous increase. Intro to Satellite Sleuthing 101: Finding Haradh III, Feb 29, 2008 Everybody talks about the Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle, but most seem to be saying the same things. And those things usually consist of quotes or statistics provided by Saudi Aramco. This presents us with the following dilemma: if we believe what they say, why don't we just quit worrying about whether or not their oil will continue to flow? Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data, Jan 3, 2008 The Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar, Oct 10, 2007 Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates, Aug 30, 2007 Depletion Levels in Ghawar, May 15, 2007 Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection, Apr 9, 20076 The Status of North Ghawar, Apr 7, 2007 Of Oil Supply trains and a thought on Ain Dar, Apr 3, 2007 Saudi production laid bare, Mar 19, 2007 A Nosedive Toward the Desert, Mar 8, 2007 Saudi Arabia and that $1000 bet, Mar 7, 2007 Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006, Mar 2, 2007 And how is Saudi Arabia getting on? (or more evidence of a deteriorating situation...), Jan 3, 2007 top

Solar

Solar Islands: A new concept for low-cost solar energy at very large scale, May 20, 2008 This is a guest post by Dr. Thomas Hinderling. Dr. Hinderling is the CEO of CSEM Centre Suisse d'Electronique et de Microtechnique SA. One of CSEM's most exciting projects concerns the design of a new class of large scale concentrating solar power systems, called Solar Islands top

The Oil Drum (website)

Thank you for helping us spread the word and facilitate the conversation..., June 30, 2008
Nielsen: The Oil Drum is the #4 Sustainability Site on the Web, May 2, 2008 The Oil Drum was recently ranked by Nielsen as the #4 sustainability site on the web (behind TreeHugger, WorldChanging, and Biopact). top

Transportation

Multiple Birds – One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads, July 15, 2008 The impact of shifting freight from trucks to electrified rail (as opposed to diesel rail to electrified rail) is a massive environmental improvement (1:8+ improvement) with very dramatic reductions in greenhouse gases regardless of the source
Neste Moves Forward with Green Diesel, June 16, 2008 Green diesel is chemically different from biodiesel. Green diesel has chemical properties identical to petroleum diesel, while biodiesel is not a pure hydrocarbon (it contains oxygen atoms, hence the somewhat different physical properties).
The Future of Air Travel?, June 18, 2008 Cheap air travel has allowed both business and leisure travel to become an embedded part of the developed world’s culture, something that is currently taken for granted.
Four Billion Cars in 2050?, Feb 18, 2008 I want to continue surveying the terrain at a very high level and look at the automobile sector under the rough assumptions I outlined in Powering Civilization to 2050. In particular, how many cars might we expect by 2050, and how can we possibly power them, given that there will be less oil, not more, by that time. I think most readers would intuit that if society was wealthier in 2050, as I postulated, then if they possibly could, the planet's citizens would tend to drive more, not less. Alternative Wind Power Experiments - SkySails and Airborne Wind Turbines, Jan 13, 2008 In this post I'll look at 2 approaches that have received some attention in the press recently - attaching kite sails to ships and airborne wind turbines. Aviation and Oil Depletion http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2858 (Aug 9, 2007) http://europe.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/11/45514/799 (Dec 19, 2006) Local Rail - An Overview, Jul 6, 2007 Electrified Rail: An Overlooked Mitigation Strategy for Peak Oil, Oct 20, 2006 USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year, Oct 26, 2007 Extending the Reach of Regional Rail, Sep 2, 2006 Miles Data Predicts Big Economic Slowdown, Oct 24, 2005 top

United Kingdom

The post-oil energy economies of the future - by Gordon Brown, July 15, 2008 .... to set ourselves on a new energy path - a path from our economies that are today over-dependent on oil towards the post-oil energy economies of the future. And moving towards this sustainable energy economy helps us meet our economic, political and environmental goals.
A State of Emergency, July 1, 2008 It is time for Alistair Darling and Mervyn King to explain to the British people why they see current problems with energy prices and associated inflation as a transient blip when the UK seems to be in a terminal dive towards insolvency.
Forties - Grangemouth: the failure of a complex tightly coupled system, April 27, 2008 The sequence of events (covered here on The Oil Drum previously) that led to the Forties Pipeline closure on 27 April 2008 began in 2005 when BP, currently the UK's largest company, sold Innovene, their Grangemouth refinery subsidiary to Ineos. Ineos is privately owned petrochemicals company that has grown from nothing since its formation in 1998, fueled by debt reported to be €9 billion. Grangemouth strike: Anglo Disease in action?, April 27, 2008 Now that the news that the Forties pipeline has to close down is known, the blame game has started...I'd like to flag just a few points that seem to be typical of our times, and maybe warrant making this a symptom of the Anglo Disease, ie the wholesale domination of our economies by reckless financial capitalism. Grangemouth: the origins of dispute (Thread 1), April 22, 2008 It therefore looks like Ineos will have to proceed with closing the plant which they say will take 4 weeks to restart. We'll be back with a fresh thread in a couple of hours. Nuclear Britain, Jan 15, 2008 ...considering the nuclear cliff, has the decision come too late to maintain the nuclear contribution? New Nuclear Reactors For The UK: Is This Really A Good Idea?, Jan 1, 2008 The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique, Oct 7, 2007 UK Government: 'energy security and climate change, Mar 9, 2007 top

United States

The US Offshore Drilling Argument: The Debate Between "Starting Now" and "Waiting a While", June 30, 2008 I believe that we need to start the process now, partly because the expected impact of peak oil will make drilling in future years much more difficult, and partly because technical advances within the petroleum industry have helped overcome some previous objections to drilling.
Hawaii: Peak Oil Canary in a Coal Mine, June 22, 2008 Hawaii seems to come up often in the thinking of people aware of peak oil.
US Natural Gas: Lessons from BP's Tight Gas Facility in Wamsutter WY, June 3, 2008 In 2005, BP made a decision to change the way it managed the Wamsutter gas field. Instead of simply following the conventional gas drilling model, it would put together its own model, one more in line with maximizing productivity as a tight gas facility.
U.S. Oil and Gasoline Import Statistics, April 25, 2008 I actually started on this post about a year ago, and forgot about it until recently. Here I provide 2007 numbers on the sources for oil and gasoline imports into the U.S., courtesy of the Energy Information Administration. How Realistic is EIA's US Domestic Oil Supply and Demand Forecast?, April 7, 2008 I was invited to a blogger's conference call on April 1, hosted by the American Petroleum Institute (API). We were told that each blogger would be allowed to ask one question of Peter Robertson, Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of Chevron Corporation. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, Dec 20, 2007 Why Dick changed his mind, Aug 23, 2007 GAO Peak Oil Report Thread, Mar 29, 2007 The Energy Content of the State of the Union, Jan 23, 2007 top

Water

Solving Our Water Problems - Desalination Using Solar Thermal Power, May 2, 2008 In this post I'll look at the Acquasol project and then more generally at water scarcity worldwide and some of the approaches being taken to tackle it. top

Wind

Gore sets goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2020, July 18, 2008 The short answer is: while 100% is probably unrealistic, it's not unreasonable to expect to be able to get pretty close to that number (say, in the 50-90% range) in that timeframe, and it is very likely that it makes a LOT of sense economically.
Looking for answers, a slight cough, and thoughts on Boone's plan, July 18, 2008 ...while the pain is immediate, remedial steps can either occur quite quickly or much more slowly – depending on the local government understanding of the situation.
If Portugal Can Do It, Why Can't We ?, June 8, 2008 The country seems to be determined to become free of dependency on fossil fuels as soon as possible, with the country's energy minister also sagely pointing out "When you have a programme like this there is no need for nuclear power. Wind and water are our nuclear power".
Weekend Energy Listening: Wind Power with Paul Gipe, June 8, 2008 Paul Gipe. He's written a number of books on wind power and most recently has become involved in feed-in tariffs for wind power in North America. I spoke to him a while ago about how the industry has developed.
Fierce pride - yes it works! (or, first ever bank-financed offshore wind farm inaugurated!), June 5, 2008 This is me in front of the windfarm which I helped finance two years ago. It's up and running, and will be generating clean energy for the next 20-25 years - at a price guaranteed not to increase for the whole period. It was inaugurated yesterday and christened Princess Amalia windfarm, after the young daughter of the Dutch crown prince.
Why wind needs feed-in tariffs (and why it is not the enemy of nuclear), Mar 3, 2008 "An argument often heard against wind is that it costs a lot in public subsidies for a solution that will always have a limited impact (because it still produces only a small fraction of overall needs, and because of its unreliability linked to its intermitten nature). This is an argument worth addressing in detail, especially when it is pointed out, as the graph shows, that wind is already almost competitive with the other main sources of electricity, which suggests that it might not even need the subsidies..." 2007: record year for US wind industry, Jan 20, 2008 "Shattering all its previous records, the U.S. wind energy industry installed 5,244 megawatts (MW) in 2007, expanding the nation's total wind power generating capacity by 45% in a single calendar year." Alternative Wind Power Experiments - SkySails and Airborne Wind Turbines, Jan 13, 2008 In this post I'll look at 2 approaches that have received some attention in the press recently - attaching kite sails to ships and airborne wind turbines. Offshore Wind, Dec 10, 2007 Wind power: some lessons from 2006, Jun 3, 2007 Key Questions on Energy Options, Jan 24, 2007 The First Ever Off-Shore Wind Farm Financed by Banks, Oct 31, 2006 Energy from Wind: A Discussion of the EROI Research, Oct 19, 2006 Why wind power works in Denmark, Aug 31, 2006 top

Year-End Reviews

2007 - The Year in Review, Dec 31, 2007 top Ed note: last node 4237